Forty predictions: what came true?
The same ideas come to the head of science and inventors – they are in many ways the future. But not all, no matter how fought, managed to realize. Some recognized unprofitable, the other is implemented locally, the third is waiting in the wings.
Moving sidewalk
Forecast
Science fiction writers did not imagine the city of the future without moving sidewalks. The device is present in the works of Azimov, Harrison, Clark, Strugatsky. Back in 1899, Herbert Wells in the book "When Sleeping Wills" wrote: "This street was about three hundred feet width and moved herself. Under the balcony, this extraordinary street quickly went to the right with the speed of the courier train of the nineteenth century. The seats and small kiosks flashed on it, but they rushed with such speed that there was no possibility to consider them ". Back in 1974, Academician Andrei Sakharov suggested that by 2024, "in urban transport will be distributed loading and unloading on the go using special mobile moving "Intermediate" devices ". The authors of the book "Peace in 2000" (1973) Hagen Baynhauer and Ernst Schmakka believed that whole areas would appear in the cities of the future, where there would be no street movement, cars will replace moving sidewalks. Virtually the dream of a modern urbanist – solving the problems of gas and traffic jams in one bottle.
Sales
In 1900, a three-level travolor (from English. Travelator – a moving pavement) with one fixed path and two tracks moving at different speeds, was demonstrated at the Paris World Exhibition. Pedestrians chose the "level of complexity" and at the end they simply jumped into a fixed part. Some so liked the attraction that they brought with them chairs and rode for hours on a three-kilometer route. Apply a device in the city of Atlanta (Georgia state), building two plots for 600 m under the ground, in 1920 BEELER ORGANIZATION was gathered. But, according to estimates, the project would cost $ 7.5 million – the metro turned out to be much more profitable. So "City Highway" and did not replace the usual transport, but locally used – mainly at airports and major shopping centers.
Traveling House
Forecast
On the German postcard of 1900 ("My Planet" published a selection of postcards from a series of forecasts of the future, where the XX century in fantasies XIX is represented) the train without voltage pulls on the rails of a five-storey house. But even earlier, in 1885, a trip to the house on wheels was described by William Gordon Stabels. Despite the fact that Stabels was known as a science fiction writer, this time everything told was true truth. In 1880, Bristol Carriage Company built on his order first in history on wheels, which became the prototype of a modern trailer. But can capital constructions travel? As practice has shown, can.
Sales
In the XV century Italian engineer Aristotle Fioravanti Bologna caged stone church bell tower as tall as a nine-story house with the help of winches and ropes, hauling edifice of runners, pushed it to 13 m. In 1870, there was a firm specializing in advancing buildings in different ways in New York.
In Russia, the most massive shifting of houses occurred during the implementation of the Master Plan for Reconstruction of Moscow 1935. Especially with this lucky Gorky Street (Tver), which Mayakovsky described as "street-snake". She began to do "straight as an arrow, and solemn, like a hymn". The magazine "Crocodile" was gay pictures riding houses with protruding from the windows joyful residents. Thus, at two o’clock, while sleeping occupants, it was transported on the rails in the four-story building yards unique Savvinskaya podvorya (Tverskaya 6). Pushed together with officials Mossovet (mayor). Launched by 90 ° and transported to the building Mamonovsky lane Eye Hospital. A total of 1930 in Moscow, moved 23 stone houses. Predictions about the rails and high-rise buildings have come true, but the travel is still more convenient (and cheaper!) On the trailer.
City under a ryshey
Forecast
Science fiction is the city, covered with a dome (English. domed city), is securely protected from the vagaries of the elements and gladly settled them as their heroes. One of the earliest mentions of these cities under the glass roof has published in 1881 the novel by William Hay, "Three hundred years later".
Sales
After 80 years of development of this idea presented engineer Buckminster Fuller, who proposed to cover the three-kilometer geodesic dome is not a city, but a large area of New York City – Midtown Manhattan (Midtown). This would allow, according to the inventor, to regulate the weather and to solve the air pollution problem.
The invention Fuller has caused a furor, his "golden dome" was shown in 1959 in Moscow, in 1967 – at the World Exhibition in Montreal. Use the know-how gathered in two United States cities. Also fairly considered that protection from the weather would be useful Yakut town of Mirny. But then the plans did not get. Now the idea of science fiction and Fuller are going to bring to Dubai (United Arab Emirates) to 4.5 million m². Tourist "city" with hotels, theaters, restaurants, shops and seven miles of streets lay a glass dome and provide air conditioning.
Knowledge in a dream
Forecast
The problem, as effortlessly cram knowledge into the students head, has long worried about humanity. Fiction used for this purpose in a dream training. So, Aldous Huxley in his book "Brave New World" (1932) with the help of children hypnopedia instilled the basics of behavior XXVI century society, respect for the highest caste and contempt for the lower. In the novel of Robert Heinlein’s "Starship Troopers" thus forged the officer corps in the Cadet Corps.
Sales
repeatedly tried to implement a method. Booming interest in the subject came in the 60-ies of XX century. In the USSR, one of the well-known researchers in this area has been a professor Abram Svyadosch, yet in 1940 he defended his thesis on "The perception of speech during natural sleep". In the 70 experiments conducted in Moscow colleges and universities. In 22 hours the students went to sleep in a specially equipped room. During the initial phase of sleep they read texts in a foreign language. In the morning they knew dozens of new words.
Despite some success of research, it has been recognized that training in a dream can bring long-term results only in conjunction with the traditional way of learning. To equip all the schools "sleeper classes" – is expensive and therefore unrealistic. And the invasion of the natural cycles of sleep and wakefulness, according to scientists, requires extreme caution, as it can have a negative impact on health.
an autonomous vehicle
Forecast
While the people of the future with the help of various devices cruise carefree fluttering in the sky, everyday work for them making machine: cleaned, cooked dinner, sew, build, taxiing vehicles. The machine that does not need the driver’s services has long naocked for fantastic works. "I drove" a self-governing car and in the cycle of works of Kira Bulychev about "Guest from the Future" Alis Selezneva, which began to be published in the mid-60s of the last century. But the inventors thought about the drone earlier.
Sales
In 50 years, the company General Motors to the test the first intelligent car in the world, equipped with magnetic sensors. The model was intended for driving on the roads paved under the asphalt electric cable. Polygon with "roads of the future", which serves auto signals, was created already in the next decade (for ordinary tracks the car was not suitable). Chrysler Plymouth went to another way: equipped the sensors that had to transmit information, a conventional bumper. But then the management system occupied half the cabin. In the 1980s, the German scientist Ernst Dikmanns made a smart car based on the van Mercedes-Benz. The five-tonne easy the whole computer system is located. Later, Dicmanns gathered two more self-manageed vehicles, which successfully passed the tests on the highway under Paris: the cars were traveled independently at a speed of up to 130 km / h, rebuilt, made overtaking. But still, at the same time, the presence of a man churring machine.
More than ten years of creating a truly unmanned car, which will take you anywhere, it is worth only pressing the button, Google works. Already two years ago on the streets of the small California city, Mountain View 20 drone drones went through the streets among ordinary cars. In the long term – replacing conventional dressings to induction charging when the microwave filling panels will be built in the parking lot. Abolition of bumps, borders, signs and marking – they will not need sensors. But it’s still far to road idyll: while drones cut down along the tracks along with people, it is not excluded in the literal sense a collision with the "human factor". Such accidents were already over 15. Work on improving the world continues.
Continue acquaintance with the topic – to read the articles of "my planet" "The future through the eyes of ancestors" and "How will the human body change in the future".
