Happy New Year! And forecasts for the future
Dear readers of the site "Yellow Crane". I have a hurry to congratulate everyone with the upcoming 2015 year. Let it be full of joy, pleasant moments and new experiences from traveling.
Solemnly swear and further delight you with high-quality materials and useful information. Happy New Year! Hooray!
I do not like to sum up and talk about the past. Therefore, I will not talk about the last year, but I dedicate this article to the future forecast. I will express my opinion on what to wait for the tourist industry and ordinary tourists in 2015, what to prepare and how to avoid trouble.
Forecast common trends in the tourist market in 2015
The tourist industry depends very much on the general economic situation in the country. The first thing that people donate during the economic crises are traveling. You can do without new fashionable clothes, and worn old. You can ride on the old car and not buy new. You can relax in the country, and not buy a tour to Egypt. And vouchers are the first, from which people refuse when the money becomes less.
In 2015, I do not expect any revival of the market. Current crisis will only increase. Even if the oil prices, from which the state of the Russian economy, fully depends, will grow up to $ 120 per barrel and all external sanctions will be canceled, then the economic growth will not happen. The recession always lasts a long time and exit from it – the case is long and complex. Recall at least the "Great Depression" in the US.
Changes in sales of tourist destinations – who will fall?
Unfortunately, many countries threaten almost complete oblivion in the eyes of Russian tourists. First of all, the outflow of Russian tourists are waiting for the resorts of Dominicans. This contributes to a very expensive and long flight in Dominican Republic.
Thailand this will touch less, because in Pattaya many tourists do not go at all for a beautiful tan. They have others, more carnal, interests, and money for this instinct will not regret.
The decline is waiting for China, as the trips to the island of Hainan will become not available for the price. Sri Lanka will suffer, which is also a long country. The resorts of the country of Morocco have always been the roads for Russians, as they have a stable flow of tourists from Europe. And now about Casablanca and Agadir many Russians will not remember. The same fate awaits Vietnam, Cuba, Goa and Mexico.
Some countries, although there are also close, also significantly reduce the tourist flow from Russia. Less Russian tourists will be in the Coliseum in Rome, in the Schönbrunn Palace in Austria and in Spain. All prices are subject to euros, but according to my forecasts, the price of 100 rubles in 2015 will not be the limit for him.
Excursion tours to China will be sold noticeably less. On the Great Wall in Beijing, there were few Russian tourists before, and now there will be no one else.
With great regret I can say that a sharp decline is waiting for our favorite destination – Nepal. If earlier, many successfully implemented their dream to look at Everest, now these desires will be postponed until better times. Tours to Nepal is waiting for a decrease in popularity 5 times or even worse.
Who will not fall?
First of all, it is Egypt. I do not believe that the beaches of Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikha lose tourists from Russia. Many who preferred expensive resorts, but lost the financial opportunity to visit them, turn the names in the directions of Egypt, Turkey and Tunisia. It is these three countries that will benefit from the crisis, although they lose some volume of tourist flow.
I think Tunisia will win the most. Before the crisis, he greatly lost the "big three" tourist countries: "Egypt", "Turkey" and "Greece". Of course, I apply such a wording from the point of view of their attendance by Russians. Now he has every chance to enter the "Troika", pusing Greece. Prices in Greece above, as this is the country of the eurozone.
Perhaps the winning will be Bulgaria due to low remoteness and low enough prices.
Wins from the crisis most. And the point is not even in low cost, but in the recent series of bankruptcies of tourist operators. Having bought a plane ticket and booking the hotel yourself, you do not risk.
Not to all countries profitably fly independently. Try to buy a ticket to Antalya Airport, you will be very unpleasant surprised by flights. Cheap charter transportation will remain the lot of tourist operators. But perhaps everything will change.
If Russian air carriers pay attention to this promising market and launch regular flights to resort towns, it can become a "hit". The first who will do this, "Sweet Bank". The question is who will decide! Who will risk spoiling relations with another "big three", but already tour operators: Pegas, Tez and Coral?
By the way, about the "big troika" tourist operators
It is objectively clear that they have no place in the market, the market is narrowed. I predict care from the market for someone. I consider TEZ Tour to be the main contender, as I see the position of each of them in the search engines of the tours every day.
TEZ position is clearly weak. In 90% of cases, selecting the tour to a certain hotel, their price is worse than three. Of course, there are no objective advantages of their tours. The hotel is the same, the planes are the same, and the guides are the same greed and non-historical. Of course, there are good guides for all companies, but their minority.
How will this "care"? Now it is impossible to predict. I hope that it will happen quietly and peacefully and no one will suffer. Let’s see.